Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 37.838682 41.164867 44.815614 49.151691 54.203733 59.957859 67.086596
2025-03-09 32.652112 36.979526 42.060846 48.577652 56.884080 67.373348 82.075694
2025-03-16 28.989979 33.620847 39.284600 46.909360 57.226753 71.243041 92.834945
2025-03-23 27.673932 32.816429 39.354769 48.587994 61.873615 81.408483 114.995129
2025-03-30 25.932283 31.231184 38.155540 48.279822 63.538747 87.425748 132.509780
2025-04-06 24.377339 29.721579 36.860315 47.599868 64.431914 92.272001 149.599785
2025-04-13 22.753264 27.981451 35.074416 45.965990 63.534561 93.833277 160.734799
2025-04-20 22.273006 27.750181 35.359058 47.420846 67.789797 105.432119 199.445899
2025-04-27 21.761368 27.425376 35.461119 48.572945 71.684527 117.383028 247.531230
2025-05-04 21.164348 26.930876 35.259093 49.190957 74.698229 128.389360 303.009213
2025-05-11 20.363982 26.090377 34.466774 48.735248 75.606109 134.961049 350.678945
2025-05-18 19.560947 25.201079 33.537558 47.951731 75.747264 139.758135 397.696405
2025-05-25 18.737213 24.267790 32.524067 47.007057 75.591661 144.246920 453.678021
2025-06-01 18.066426 23.533600 31.784203 46.489097 76.276336 151.376018 540.961597
2025-06-08 17.230883 22.512304 30.527850 44.933901 74.523657 151.131888 582.936687
2025-06-15 17.095994 22.544931 30.962858 46.499275 79.876281 174.350828 906.924355
2025-06-22 16.608893 22.011130 30.436485 46.212072 80.957583 184.538254 1188.290096
2025-06-29 16.091225 21.407316 29.760031 45.578109 81.118490 191.701632 1518.102388
2025-07-06 15.443716 20.576922 28.665833 44.053191 78.901764 189.237315 1646.649073
2025-07-13 15.350297 20.611097 29.026234 45.411132 84.108191 218.886635 3730.550211
2025-07-20 15.208388 20.560199 29.235569 46.485252 88.837321 250.881670 14825.133626
2025-07-27 14.991180 20.378135 29.205097 47.060991 92.355171 280.801724 NaN
2025-08-03 14.630476 19.949840 28.719703 46.636483 92.960102 295.820497 NaN